Caseload Forecast Adds $277 Million to 2009-11 Costs

Yesterday (Friday the 13th), the state Caseload Forecast Council updated its forecasts for K-12 enrollments and for various human services caseloads. Here is a table that summarizes the differences between the new forecasts and the caseloads assumed in the adopted 2009¬11 budget. The key changes include:

  • K–12. Enrollments are now expected to exceed the numbers assumed in the adopted 2009–11 budget by 1,236 (0.1 percent) during this school year and by 3,925 (0.4 percent) next year.
  • Welfare. The new forecasts for the federal/state TANIF program exceed the budgeted numbers by 1,525 (2.4 percent) for FY 2010 and 1,255 (2.0 percent) for FY 2010. For the state-only General Assistance programs, the new forecasts are 1,502 (4.0 percent) greater than budgeted for this fiscal year and 2,926 (7.1 percent) greater than budgeted for next year.
  • Medical assistance. For programs that serve families, the new forecasts exceed budget assumptions by 28,283 (9.5 percent) for FY 2010 and 42,150 (13.8 percent) for 2011. For those programs that specifically serve children, the new forecasts exceed budget assumptions by 26,351 (5.7 percent) this year and 54,421 (11.3 percent) next year.

Office of Financial Management Director Victor Moore estimated that the pure impact the new forecasts (i.e. the impact calculated without adjusting for changes in the utilization of services) would be to increase spending for the biennium by $277 million from the budgeted level.

Details of the revised forecasts are available on the Caseload Forecast Council website here. A video of the meeting is available via TVW here.