The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued its monthly Economic and Revenue Update today. Here are the document’s summary points on revenue.
- Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the January 11 – February 10, 2013 collection period were $8.4 million (0.6%) lower than the November forecast, but a shortfall had been anticipated due to higher-than-expected Revenue Act receipts in the two prior months.
- Cumulative General Fund-State collections are now $83.7 million (2.0%) greater than forecasted.
- Most of the positive cumulative variance is from real estate excise tax collections, which are $47.1 million higher than forecasted due to a larger-than-expected year-end surge to beat 2013 federal tax increases.
There will be one additional month’s collections data before March 20, when the EFRC will next revise it’s forecast of state revenues for the 2011-13 and 2013-15 biennia. With the $83.7 million positive variance between collections and the forecast prepared in November, it is likely that the March revision will be good news for budget writers. But because much of the positive collections variance is due to one-time factors, the upward revision is likely to be only modest.
Washington Research Council 