Another good news state revenue forecast, with a warning

Today’s state revenue forecast beat expectations (at least my expecations).

First the good news, from the press release:

The September forecast for the 2013-15 biennium is $345 million higher than in June and the forecast for the 2015-17 biennium has been increased by $342 million. These forecast updates include $123 million in legislative and other non- economic changes in the 2013-15 biennium and $249 million in legislative and other non- economic changes in the 2015-17 biennium. Preliminary state fiscal-year closing numbers show that 2011-13 biennium was about $23 million higher than forecasted in June.

And the warning:

We continue to forecast slow economic and job growth for both the national and state economies. However, uncertainty remains very high due to concerns about China, federal fiscal policy, housing affordability and Europe.

That uncertainty accounts to the 30 percent probability assigned to the pessimistic forecast; the optimistic alternative gets a 15 percent probablity.

I imagine Kriss will have more on this later. For the full set of materials, go here.