State revenue: September 11 to October 10 collections beat forecast by $9.8 million

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued its monthly Update this morning. Here are the key bullets on state revenue collections from the summary:

  • Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the September 11 – October 10, 2013 collection period were $32.3 million (2.9%) higher than the September forecast.
  • The forecast included a $22.5 million refund that did not occur this month but will occur at a later date. Had the refund occurred as expected, collections would have been $9.8 million (0.9%) above the forecast.

The $9.8 million positive variance (factoring out the refund) is good news for now. However, the economic forecast underlying the revenue forecast did not anticipate the partial shutdown of the federal government and assumed higher federal spending in the 2014 federal fiscal year than now seems likely. These factors make it less likely that collections will exceed the forecast going forward.

Here is a link to the Update.