The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will update its forecast of state revenue tomorrow.
The collections report for the October 11 to November 10 period that was issued last Tuesday (November 12) showed collections were $48.4 million (3.9%) greater than expected under the forecast adopted in September. Early property tax payments contributed $21.7 million of this positive variance; adjusting for this, the “good news” in the collections report was actually $26.7 million. Cumulatively, collections since September 11 totaled $87.7 million more than expected by the September forecast. Factoring out the early property tax collections and large one-time payments reduces the good news to $51.8 million. Based on this, I normally would expect a modest upward adjustment to the revenue forecast. However, the good news on collections may be offset by last month’s partial government shutdown, which has taken a bit of steam out of the economy.