Small increase to state revenue forecast

The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council meet today and updated its forecast of state revenues. On an apples-to-apples basis, ERFC increased the estimate of revenues for the completed 2011-13 biennium by $9.1 million and increased the forecast of revenues for the current 2013-15 biennium by $16.0 million. $10.5 million of the latter figure results from arbitration regarding the tobacco settlement.

The new revenue forecast also reflects an accounting adjustment. As ERFC staff explain it,

A technical adjustment regarding the definition of revenue has removed $22 million from collections for the 2011-13 biennium and will remove approximately $41 million in the current and future biennia. The adjustment, however, does not change ending fund balances in the budgetary balance sheet, as it merely moves funds from the “revenue” section to the section that includes other resources. The funds being reclassified are those that result from recoveries of expenditures from previous budgetary periods, which do not represent new revenue as they result from recovered previous revenue.

The balance sheet based on the revised forecast and the enacted 2013-15 budget projects an ending balance for the general fund of $582.2 $341.2 million.

Nov 2013 Balance Sheet

Here is TVW’s video of the meeting:

EFRC

Here is a link to the materials from today’s meeting.

The EFRC also approved a new budget outlook at today’s meeting. I’ll have more to say about this in a later post.