New general fund–state revenue forecast: up $163 million for 2013–15 biennium; up $143 million for 2015–17 biennium

The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) held its quarterly meeting today. The forecast of general fund–state revenue for the current biennium (2013–15) increased by $162.5 million to $33,331.9 million. The forecast of general fund-state revenue for the upcoming biennium (2015–17) increased by $143.0 million to $36,078.2 million.

These increases were a bit smaller than I had predicted in a blog post last week based on recent collections experience. At the meeting, ERFC Executive Director Steve Lerch explained that recent B&O tax collections had been boosted by lower than expected refunds and use of credits, trends that he did not expect to continue.

Budget reports from legislative fiscal committees often roll-up three accounts; the general fund–state, the education legacy trust account and the Washington opportunity pathways account. We refer to this three-account roll-up as the NGFS+. For the NGFS+ the forecast of revenue for the 2013–15 biennium increased by $168.5 million to $33,951.7 million, while the forecast for the 2015–17 biennium increased by $138.6 million to $36,709.4 million.

The press release is here; slides from the meeting are here.

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