January 11–February 10 state revenue collections were $53.8 million greater than forecast

At noon the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued its monthly Economic and Revenue Update. Here are the key bullets on revenue from the summary:

  • Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the January 11 – February 10, 2015 collection period were $53.8 million (3.8%) higher than the November forecast.
  • Cumulatively, collections are now $69.0 million (1.5%) higher than forecasted.
  • Last month, there were several large one-time assessment payments and re-funds that totaled $21.2 million. In addition, a $21.0 million refund that was forecasted for the month is now expected to occur in March instead. Had the refund occurred when forecasted, and the one-time payments not occurred, cumulative collections would have been $26.8 million (0.6%) higher than forecasted.
  • Because the $21 million refund is still expected to occur, the effective cumulative surplus is $48.0 million (1.1%).

Here is a chart snipped from the Update showing monthly seasonally-adjusted Revenue Act collections since 2004.

Revenue-Act-Receipts Feb 15

This is the third collections report since the revenue forecast was last revised in November. Overall state revenues are on track: This month’s strong showing offsets weakness in last month’s report.

The next collection report is due on March 11. These will be followed by a revised revenue forecast on March 18.